Articles

Learning to See, Not Just Look: Wack and Scenario Thinking

Tags: scenario planning, Pierre Wack, futures thinking, complex systems, strategic foresight, uncertainty, decision-making, Gurdjieff, oil crisis, systems thinking

How Pierre Wack foresaw the oil crisis at Shell. On the limits of forecasting, complex systems, and preparing for the future through "rehearsal of the mind."

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True Experts, Procedures and Protocols

Tags: decision making, experts, Klein, Kahneman, crisis, intuition, complexity

In the 1989 UA 232 plane crash, the intervention of an expert pilot significantly reduced the loss of life. I am discussing the contrasting views of Kahneman and Klein on expert decision-making and their convergence, using this case as an example.

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