How Pierre Wack foresaw the oil crisis at Shell. On the limits of forecasting, complex systems, and preparing for the future through "rehearsal of the mind."
Knowledge · Thought · Decision · Action
Complexity
meets cognition
Books, essays, discussions about complex systems, knowledge, decision making and critical thinking.
Latest essaysFeatured book
Book
Management · Thinking Critically · Decision Making
Critical Thinking
for Managers
"Critical thinking begins with understanding the importance of knowledge and questioning its reliability."
For managers, aspiring managers, or anyone wishing to take responsibility for their decisions. (This book is currently in Turkish only)
Latest Posts
01
Learning to See, Not Just Look: Wack and Scenario Thinking
02
The Neighbor's Donkey: Responsibility and Evasion
Fatalism or rebellion: are both forms of evasion? From Hofstede to Kierkegaard and Camus, a philosophical essay on where genuine ethical responsibility lives.
About
Dr. Afif Say
Author · Consultant
Cognitive Science · Complexity
Cognitive Science · Complexity
A life devoted to knowledge and thinking
Born in Istanbul in 1958, Afif Say graduated from Hacettepe University Faculty of Medicine in 1984 and worked as a doctor in rural Turkey for two years. He then moved into the IT sector, where he held senior management positions.
In 1994, he moved to the US and worked as a manager in the field of information management at Microsoft’s headquarters in Redmond. In 2005, he left his job to travel the world; he managed NGO management development projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. Upon his return to the US, he served as an adjunct professorial lecturer on the master’s and doctoral programmes at American University.
Afif Say, who has settled in Cyprus in recent years, writes books and articles, as well as working as a senior executive and consultant.